In the last 3 years overall, I have accurately predicted 72% of the Oscar nominations. I expect that to drastically change this year.
There is going to have to be a lot more thought, predicting and just outright guessing this year since the Academy changed their voting system. Steve Pond writes a great breakdown of how the voting system works this year.
I will revise my predictions up until the nominees are announced on January 24, 2012.
71.1% Accuracy
Picture
1) The Artist
2) The Descendants
3) Hugo
4) The Help
5) Midnight in Paris
if 6) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
if 7) Moneyball
if 8) War Horse
if 9) The Tree of Life
if 10) Bridesmaids
* Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Ides of March, Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows 2
Director
- Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
- Alexander Payne – The Descendants
- Martin Scorsese – Hugo
- Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
- Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
* David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo , Steven Spielberg – War Horse, Nicolas Winding Refn - Drive, Tomas Alfredson - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Actor
- Jean Dujardin – The Artist
- George Clooney – The Descendants
- Brad Pitt - Moneyball
- Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
- Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
*Michael Shannon - Take Shelter, Michael Fassbendar - Shame
Actress
- Glen Close – Albert Nobbs
- Viola Davis – The Help
- Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
- Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn
- Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin
*Elizabeth Olson – Martha Marcy May Marlene, Kirsten Dunst – Melancholia, Anna Paquin - Margaret
Supporting Actor
- Albert Brooks - Drive
- Jonah Hill - Moneyball
- Nick Nolte - Warrior
- Christopher Plummer – Beginners
- Kenneth Branagh – My Week With Marilyn
*Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life, Armie Hammer - J. Edgar
Supporting Actress
- Shailene Woodley – The Descendants
- Berenice Bejo – The Artist
- Jessica Chastain – The Help
- Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
- Octavia Spencer – The Help
* Viola Davis – The Help, Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs, Sareh Bayat – A Separation, Carey Mulligan - Shame, Jessica Chastain - The Tree of Life/Take Shelter
Adapted Screenplay
- Moneyball - Zaillian, Sorkin
- The Descendants - Payne, Faxon
- Hugo - John Logan
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Steven Zaillian
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - O'Connor, Straughan
*The Help, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Drive, War Horse, Jane Eyre, A Dangerous Method
Original Screenplay
- The Artist - Michel Hazanavicius
- Young Adult - Diablo Cody
- Midnight in Paris
- Bridesmaids - Wiig, Mumolo
- A Separation - Asghar Farhadi
*Win Win, 50/50, Tree of Life
Original Score
- The Artist - Ludovic Bource
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Alberto Iglesias
- War Horse – John Williams
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 - Alexandre Desplat
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - Trent
*Alexandre Desplat - The Tree of Life, Howard Shore - Hugo/A Dangerous Method
Cinematography
- Guillaume Schiffman – The Artist
- Hoyte van Hoytema - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
- Robert Richardson - Hugo
- Emmanuel Lubezki - The Tree of Life
- Janusz Kaminski - War Horse
*Melancholia, Drive, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Film Editing
- The Artist
- The Descendants
- Hugo
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
* Moneyball, Midnight in Paris, War Horse, Drive
Sound Editing
- The Adventures of Tintin
- Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
- Drive
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Super 8
* Moneyball, X-Men: First Class, Thor, Captain America,
Sound Mixing
- Hugo
-
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
- Super 8
- Moneyball
* Transformers: DOTM, X-Men: First Class, Thor, Captain America
Art Direction:
- The Artist
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
- Hugo
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
- Captain America
* The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, War Horse, Tree of Life, Jane Eyre
Costume Design:
- The Artist
- Jane Eyre
- Hugo
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
- The Help
* Tree of Life, Captain America
Make-up:
- The Artist
- Albert Nobbs
- Hugo
* Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2, The Iron Lady, Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life, Anonymous
Visual Effects:
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon
- Rise of the Planet of the Apes
- Pirates of the Caribbean : On Stranger Tides
- Hugo
* X-Men: First Class, Captain America , The Tree of Life, Mission
Animated
- The Adventures of Tintin
- Rango
- Cars 2
- Kung Fu Panda 2
- Puss In Boots
*Arthur Christmas
